It’s a been a good few days here in the Tampa area, the temperature is cooler, hurricane Ida missed us and the  Bucs have a 1 game win streak. The Bucs and their fans are still riding that euphoria high of lasts week’s win. All is good in sunny Florida. I’d like to think the Bucs will continue there winning ways, but the facts are they are still a young rebuilding team with a rookie QB and I don’t see Freeman having another outstanding outing like he did in first game and the there are a few other key match ups that are major red flags for the Bucs.

The Bucs will struggle against the Fish’s running game and it’s the number one reason why the Bucs will lose. Just like the Giants and the Panthers the Dolphins run the ball very well. I think the Bucs defense has made strides since the beginning of the season especially in the secondary, but not so much against the run. The Dolphins bring the 4th best rushing attack in the NFL, Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are respectively 13th and 17th in rushing yards. The Dolphins are also the originator of the Wildcat, which will also present a unique set of issues for the Buccaneers defense. The Bucs are 30th in the league against the rush and allow over 163 yards a game.

If Josh Freeman can repeat his debut performance passing the ball, which was one of the best ever for a rookie’s first game, then there is some hope for the Bucs, because the Dolphins are 29th against the pass. The 29th stat is inflated, because the Fish have played the Colts, Patriots, Falcons, Chargers and soon to be Superbow champs Saints. I think most teams would have terrible statistics, if they had to play those teams, so expect them to look and play better against the Bucs then what you might expect.

The Dolphins may not be great against the pass, but they are 4th against the run. The Bucs offensive line is playing much better and the reason is Jeff Faine. Since he’s been back in the line up, pass protection is better and the running has had a chance. It should be a good match up and I’m looking forward to watching it play out in the trenches.

The spread is Bucs  +10, which seems like a lot of point to be giving the Bucs. I’ve completely faltered lately with picks, but I’m taking the Miami Dolphins -10.

I think the planets, moons and stars aligned perfectly for the Bucs last week and it was great to watch. The Bucs came in off a bye week and played a great game at home. They broke out the retro jerseys and broke one off on the Packers. Josh Freeman debut was like a rock star, but I think everyone comes back down to earth this Sunday. The Dolphins are a great running team and it will be the demise of the Bucs. The Fish will control the clock and Freeman will be pressed to make something happen. Freeman was good and lucky last week, but I don’t think it plays out like that this time around. Freeman and the Bucs inability to the stop the run will lead to a humbling defeat, so enjoy the win streak and the good times while they last.

Final Score: Bucs 10 vs Fish 24