If you like smash mouth football, then this week’s match up the Bucs and Panthers should make you smile. The Panthers may have more talent and have a better record, but these teams are going to be very similar in their approach to how they are going to want to play and win this game. Both teams are going to want to run the ball to keep it out their inexperienced QB’s hands and both teams are going to stack 8 and 9 guys in the box to stop each others run game, so the inexperienced QB will have to throw it.
Last week Raheem Morris took over the defensive play calling and switched back to the one gap, Tampa 2 and the results were immediate. The Bucs held the Falcons to 75 total rushing yards and 2.9 rushing average. That was impressive for a team that couldn’t stop the run all season long. The Bucs also had 6 sacks, one of which resulting in Matt Ryan injuring his toe and leaving the game. Let’s just say I’m cautiously optimistic the Bucs will be aggressive in stopping the run, daring the Panthers to pass and pressuring the QB. If the Bucs can force Matt Moore to make some rushed decisions, the Bucs secondary will have some chances for some big plays this week.
For the Bucs it’s ultimately going to come down to stopping the rushing attack of the Panthers and going back the last 2 games the Panthers just have our number and they take the Bucs lunch money. Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams combined to rush for 262 yards and three touchdowns in the last meeting. Prior to that it was a MNF game last season where the Panthers pounded it for 299 yards on the ground on the Bucs and that started what turned out to be a very long losing streak. I expect the Bucs defense to rise up to the occasion and simply smack the Panthers running game in the mouth. As a team you can’t let a division rival keep bitch slapping you. It’s time for the Bucs to shut down their run game, pressure the QB and let secondary do their thing. The secondary will probably be without the services of Aqib Talib and I’d have to chalk that up as a huge advantage for Steve Smith and the Panthers passing game though, but I also think Matt Moore is a huge advantage for the Bucs.
For the Panthers you can expect the same thing from their defense. Josh Freeman has been playing well above expectations, but the facts are he’s still a rookie QB that is prone to make a bad play here and there, so expect the Panthers to try and take the ball out of the Cadillac’s hands and put it into Freeman’s. I think Freeman, Winslow, Stovall and Cadillac get off this weekend and have good ball games.
The point spread opened at Bucs +7.5, but it’s down to +5. The masses either think the Bucs are going to pull it off or Matt Moore shaves 2.5 off the line. I’ll take the Bucs +5 points this week. It comes down the Bucs stopping the run. If they can do it, not only do they cover, they may win. If they don’t, then Bucs will need to empty out their pockets and hand over their lunch money for a third straight time.